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Research & business

如何将covid-19会影响英国的生产力?

(12可能2020)

从我们的商学院教授理查德·哈里斯使用了2008 - 09年经济衰退,作为评估covid-19的生产力在英国可能产生的影响的基准。

设置当前世界流行的外观的影响,对世界经济产生前所未有的冲击。秘书长本组织经济合作与发展组织(OECD)表示在3月23日,全球经济衰退看起来“越来越有可能”在今年上半年,“我们现在必须采取行动,以避免旷日持久的经济衰退”。根据国际货币基金(IMF)首席克里斯塔利纳·乔治瓦,全球经济的0.6%,2009年收缩,2008年全球金融危机的影响,但主要新兴市场如中国和印度在当时市场上以极快的速度进行增长;与此相反,一些预测者认为,目前的低迷可能是1.5%。以下对酒馆,酒吧和餐馆,它是由团结工会预测到第三英国的320万组热情好客的工作的开放在了限制受到威胁。

什么可能是在英国工作效率的影响?显然,这是太早做出任何明确或准确的预测,所以这里的意图是看2008-09衰退作为一个可能的基准是什么即将全面展开。开始我们需要把2008 - 09年大衰退进入历史的角度。在1920-21衰退的第一年较深(注意,这事发生在1918至1920年后WW1禽流感大流行之间的20-40万台被杀后立即时期),英国经济恢复到其预之后围绕4年半的经济衰退的水平。然而,2008 - 09年衰退的影响超过七位岁)。鉴于经合组织和IMF的意见,这表明英国正面临着也许是十年或更长的时间来化妆地面上的什么是可能在未来几个月内展开。

采用国家统计办公室(ONS)的数据集,以显示2008 - 09年的金融危机,我们看到劳动生产率大约平均1.96%的年息增长的影响期间1990-2007和之后的衰退浸趋势已经接近0.5%P.A.一般。的会发生什么生产力,如果1990 - 2007年的趋势继续将导致由2019可能被视为“丢失”在英国经济中生产率年底的约17个百分点的差距外推。

生产力2007年后的下降主要是由于在生产商品和服务的下降(这是典型的所有的衰退中),使就业机会更小的下跌。什么是关于2008 - 09年经济衰退的不同是就业机会相对于以往的经济衰退,使得它已采取生产力更长的时间才能恢复到2008年之前的水平“囤积”。

通过采取只是经济衰退期间就业浅倾角和流平掉一个增长缓慢回之前经济衰退前的水平可以看出,虽然输出更下跌显著,仅在2013年第一季度恢复到经济衰退前的水平。因此,生产率只有完全恢复到2012年第三季度,即4年半后,以2008年之前的水平。

生产力损失大多是由输出造成的摔伤不就业削减补偿。如上所述,在大多数衰退看到眼前下降输出之后由就业匹配下降,与通常后者然后将具有更大的“深度”和持久的更长,这是有点不寻常。事实上,许多企业利用经济衰退来“净化”效率低下和引入新的(通常是节省劳力的)技术。总之,经济衰退通常是在短期通过降低劳动生产率,但长期来看引进结构的改变,增加经济弹性的影响。这种情况没有发生交2008-09。

Will the current crisis be like the 2008-09 recession or more typically follow earlier patterns w这里 productivity levels recovered much faster (and usually to pre-recession trends)? Given that the immediate response of government has been (understandable) supply-side measures to try to protect jobs (through employment subsidies), and given the dramatic fall in demand for certain service sector industries (such as the distribution, transport, and accommodation & food sectors), it seems very likely that employment levels are expected to receive greater ‘protection’ than the production of goods and services, and the trends are more likely to be repeated in productivity terms (albeit with greater negative consequences).

Indeed, productivity in the production (with construction) vis-à-vis service sectors, shows that 5 sectors were particularly ‘hard hit’ by the 2008-09 recession. The production sector took a larger hit earlier on, but recovered faster, while it took services much longer to return to pre-2008 levels. In the arts & entertainment sector and transportation services especially, t这里 was still an important gap over 5 years after the start of the recession (together with the fall in productivity having been much more severe in these sectors). Most of the change in productivity was the result of output changes (while jobs were largely maintained at pre-recession levels or saw only relatively small declines which recovered more quickly). And output only recovered to 2008 Q1 levels in 2013 Q3 for distribution (i.e., 5 years later), while it took until 2014 Q3, 2015 Q1 and 2019 Q1 for arts & entertainment, accommodation & food, and transportation services, respectively (an average of nearly 9 years for these sectors as a sub-group).

摘要

The impact on the world economy of the current world pandemic is predicted to be severe, perhaps 2 – 3 times more severe than in 2008-09. Using the 2008-09 recession as a guide of what might happen, w这里 labour productivity moved to a new, much lower growth trajectory, and took a much longer time to recover to pre-recession levels compared to recessions that took place in the 20th century, it seems likely that the UK will follow the same pattern as post-2007 but with deeper ‘cuts’ in productivity and a longer recovery time to follow. In part this is because the government (for clear and obvious reasons) is seeking to protect employment levels, which is the main feature of what happened to productivity following the financial crisis in 2008-09. Sectors like construction, distribution, accommodation & food, transportation services, and arts & entertainment are likely to face the brunt of what is about to impact on the UK (and world) economy.

引用

附件(2020A)劳动力市场统计数据的时间序列。可从以下 //www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/labourmarketstatistics

项(2020B)GDP输出方法 - 低级聚集体。网址为: //www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukgdpolowlevelaggregates/current

找到更多

  • 理查德·哈里斯 是经济学的副行政院长(研究)和教授在我们商学院
  • 有兴趣在我们的商业学校学习?看看我们不同的学习方案 这里

 

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